What Really Happened in Lahaina?

A closer look at what we know, and what we don't.

Y’all should have seen my brain swirling trying to put this all together in a readable format. The various ways I could have gone seemed endless. If there is something I didn’t include that you consider important, please feel free to leave a respectful comment.

A few notes first.

• I am not a wildfire or natural disaster expert. I am relying on sources that I am able to find online.

• The government as a whole is corrupt. This isn’t a negotiable statement, it’s unfortunately just the truth. Please do not take any of these statements as a defense of them, but instead an attempt to be accurate so that we are able to hold the right people accountable.

• THIS is exactly why politics matters. “Staying out of it” simply should not be an option, because it has real world effects on real world people.

• Both the left and the right live by the same creed…never let a crisis go to waste. This is no exception.

On the very basic ground floor of this event, here’s what happened. On Tuesday August 8th, a fire began, and burned through much of Lahaina, the west side of Maui. The fire caused great damage, and sadly killed many residents.

Let the discussion begin.

How did the fire start? There seems to be three main theories.

1. According to the climate change crowd, wildfires are getting worse everywhere. Wildfires are certainly not rare in Hawaii. Back in 2021, Maui County found that “the number of incidents from a combination of wild/brush/forest fires appears to be increasing, and that this increase poses an increased threat to citizens, properties and sacred sites.” Apparently, Lahaina in Hawaiian means, “cruel sun” as it is an extremely dry part of the island. According to Elizabeth Pickett, co-executive director of the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, less than 1% of wildfires are from natural causes. She blames the spread of non native, flammable grasses, as well as, of course the extraordinarily hot Summer we have been repeatedly informed of this year by the climate change prophets.

2. Another theory is the incompetence of leadership in the area. This line of thought looks to the lack of maintenance on the island, mismanagement of water in the area, etc + a perfect storm of high wind conditions. Here is a link to a video showing the power lines with unmaintained foliage all around them (language warning!) The high winds have been substantiated by many first hand accounts, and warnings of flammable conditions were sent beginning on August 3rd to the residents by the National Weather Service. This even caused the few schools that were open to close for the day. This is believed to be a legitimate image of the email sent out by schools.

   

3. There is a theory that a Direct Energy Weapon, used by the government, started the fire, intentionally. Possible motivations for this are said to be the desire to build a “15 minute city,” also known as a smart city, or as a possibility for a land grab by investors. As far as the DEW, this claim is currently unsubstantiated. The images being circulated have been proven to be other events. One from Michigan, one from Ft. Lauderdale, and this one. This image has been shared as evidence of a DEW, but is in reality a 2018 SpaceX launch in California.

   

   That alone doesn’t discredit the theory, but it is certainly not the proof it is being made out to be. Also of note, Hawaii is a deep blue state, so it seems unlikely they would need to do this to push through a smart city plan. Finally, it is true that investors are hounding residents to sell. While this is very unfortunate, it does not seem to be proof that they were part of the cause, but rather that they are unprincipled in the aftermath of a devastating disaster. This is sadly quite common after these sorts of events, see Puerto Rico.

   [Extra note: as of Monday, the Governor is attempting to put a freeze on the ability of investors to buy property. Some are questioning the move, as they believe that residents should be able to make this decision for themselves.]

4. As of Sunday, the 20th, there is a new possibility being floated, that power grid malfunctions may have started the fires. According to Hawaii News Now, Bob Marshall, the founder and CEO of Whisker Labs claims that data from the company’s sensors suggested that there were dozens of power grid malfunctions, which likely caused multiple fires. He explains that due to the high winds the power grid was under extreme pressure, which resulted in many faults. He claims that for the nearby fire in Kula, “We have direct video evidence that there was a large arch flash, it corresponds to a fault on the grid. Any of the other faults could have sparked a wildfire. So I think given everything we know, it’s likely the case.” Hawaii Electric has declined to comment at this time. A class action lawsuit has already been filed against them.

Conclusion: What makes the most sense to me as far as the start and spread of the fire is a combination of things. Dry and hot conditions, because, Summer in Hawaii. High winds due to storms. Incompetent leadership. Lack of maintenance on power lines. Power grid malfunctions. Invasive grasses. Old infrastructure.

Some other “well that just seems weird” stuff going around the internet, and possible explanations.

1. Sirens and alerts? From what I can determine, alerts were sent out to phones…which was not particularly helpful considering service and power was extremely spotty. Hawaii has a self described state of the art siren system installed all across their islands to warn residents of just these sorts of events. What we do know is that they did not go off. What we don’t know, is why? The Governor of Hawaii has said that some were destroyed in the fire. The head of the Maui Emergency Management Agency has also chimed in…and abruptly stepped down due to “health reasons.” Prior to his resignation, a video began circulating where he says he did not regret not sounding the alarms. That headline is everywhere. However, if you watch the whole video, he explains that those are primarily used for tsunami warnings, and cause residents to seek higher ground. He says this would have driven fleeing locals directly into the fire. Is he simply covering his mistake? Who knows.

2. Why didn’t the trees burn? This is a pretty easy one. Per the National Forest Association, “Trees in fire-prone areas develop thicker bark, in part, because thick bark does not catch fire or burn easily. It also protects the inside of the trunk, the living tissues that transport water and nutrients, from heat damage during high-frequency, low-intensity fires.”

   

3. Why did the fire “skip” the houses of celebrities like Bezos and Oprah? Put simply, because neither of their homes are in Lahaina. Both homes are in areas of the island that are largely untouched.

4. What happened to the water? This topic could probably be an entire article all by itself, but I’ll give you the gist. There have been “water wars” for years now in Maui/all of Hawaii. It appears that it was mismanaged years ago when they built large plantations, and was exacerbated as they began to add resorts to the islands. That mismanagement has built over time to create a shortage, when large amounts are needed. In this case, firefighters report that water was trickling out of the hydrants. When they requested more, it was caught up in bureaucracy, and they didn’t receive it in time.

Finally, let’s take a look at the federal government, and the questions people have about their role in this tragedy. 

1. Why isn’t the government releasing an accurate body count? This is quite simply harder than it seems. As of two days ago, there were 1400 people unaccounted for. According to a mortician on the ground (see video here) it is extremely difficult to identify the charred and at times almost non existent bodies they’re finding. They are using cadaver dogs to search, and the number will likely continue to grow.

2. If Maui residents have a go fund me, does FEMA withhold aid? According to FEMA’s website, not exactly. Here’s what they say. “If you receive money from a GoFundMe page for something specific, such as repairs, funeral expenses or other aid, this may affect your FEMA eligibility, but survivors should still apply for assistance and let FEMA determine if you are eligible. By law, FEMA cannot duplicate benefits you receive from another source.” So the process is this. You’re supposed to get $700 from FEMA. You get $200 from a GoFund Me. You are supposed to report that to FEMA when applying for aid, and they will give you $500.

3. Why isn’t the government sending more aid? This can go a lot of directions. Manpower. Money. Supplies. Has there EVER been a crisis where folks felt like they got the help they needed? I’m going to go out on a limb and guess the answer is no. And without getting into the weeds on how this money is approved, etc, I want to talk about something that I think really matters here. A 6 minute video was sent to me, of a woman talking about how the federal government has done nothing, but locals are banding together and making things happen, and she’s very angry at Biden. Case in point of why we need to care about our local government. This entire situation is a case study in that area. Bad local leadership led to incompetent management of a crisis. Now, residents are expecting daddy government to swoop in, and the truth is, they’re just not coming in any real way. Because they never are. They throw a check at us now and then, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty, your local community is all you have. Hopefully that’s a lesson we can all take to heart.

Whew. Ok. That was a lot. If you’re in the “question everything” camp, hey hey friend, me too. But we can’t lose our common sense in pursuit of blaming the government for everything. Most likely, this was a mix of incompetence, some bad actors, and simple environmental factors creating a perfect storm. Calling it what it is creates the best chance of holding the right people and entities accountable, so let’s make sure we do our due diligence.

As the clean up efforts continue, more information will likely come out, and I will correct this article as needed.